Only a week ago, Suwon Samsung Bluewings fell 2-1 to Daegu FC in the 2022 K League 1. The result in Final B had many Suwon fans believe that the two-legged promotion/ relegation games were inevitable with a team battling in the K League 2. However, it looks as if FC Seoul wants to make the fight for survival more exciting and increase tension for their fans as well as Suwon's.
With the last round of the K League 1 Final B taking place this Saturday, Michael Redmond looks ahead at Suwon's visit to Gimcheon Sangmu and how FC Seoul's visit to Suwon FC can also affect the Bluewing's finish in the table.
As Things StandLooking at the table above, FC Seoul are two points ahead of Suwon Bluewings in the table. Both teams are also level on goals scored which is important to note. Going against the grain, the K League decide standings on goals scored if two teams are tied on points, not goal difference. This has come into effect in the past. Take note of 2020 when Seoul E-Land had the better goal difference between themselves and Daejeon Hana Citizen. However, due to the K League judging on goals scored, Daejeon went to the playoffs with 36 goals against Seoul's 33 goals.
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With this in mind, there are a few different outcomes which can happen on the weekend and here is want can go down...
10th place will play the winner of the playoffs between Gyeongam vs Bucheon and then that winner Vs FC Anyang, once again in two-legged games.
Gimcheon will play a promotion/ relegation game regardless of any other team's results on Saturday. Gimcheon could climb to 10th if they beat Suwon Bluewings and on paper have the easier team to fight against for survival.
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This is where it gets a bit tricky. A loss for Suwon on the weekend will drop them to 11th place for two games against Daejeon.
A draw could be okay, as long as Suwon do not beat Gimcheon Sangmu. If Suwon do win, they will need to score one more goal than FC Seoul.
If the two games ended, FC Seoul 2-2 Suwon FC and the other game ends Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Gimcheon. FC Seoul will still remain in 9th as they managed to score 43 goals in the season against Suwon's 42.
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If the two games ended, FC Seoul 2-2 Suwon FCand the other game endsSuwon Bluewings 3-0 Gimcheon.FC or even Suwon Bluewings 3-2 Gimcheon, Suwon will leapfrogSeoul as they will now have 44 goals against FC Seoul's 43 goals. Both teams will be level on points.
Adding Fuel to the Fire Those who are familiar with the K League 1 will know the rivalry between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul. When the two teams meet, it is normally called 'The Super Match' In the past, the two sides were battling for the title or at the very least, an ACL spot. So the match had a lot more at stake than just bragging rights.
Apart from 2017, Since 2016, at least one of the two teams have been in the bottom six come the time of the K League 1 split. Both teams have been in the bottom six on three occasions since 2016 and the years 2020 and this year, 2022 had them both of them in the mix.
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Thinking Outside of the PitchThe last round of games saw the Bluewings beat Suwon Fc 3-0 in the Suwon derby. Giving the side some much-needed momentum going into the last game of the regular season.
For FC Seoul however, the opposite could be said. FC Seoul have failed to win any of their games post-split, with two losses and two draws. The kick in the teeth for the capital side was their 1-0 loss to already relegated Seongnam Fc, who have had a treacherous time in the K League 1.
The loss led to a big fan protest against FC Seoul and their manager An Ik-soo which barricaded the team bus, not allowing them to leave the stadium until the boss and Na Sang-ho apologized for their performance. Seoul are heading into their game with Suwon FC practically rock bottom.
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Suwon Bluewings have to face Gimcheon Sangmu, this will be the fourth time they will play one another this year. The previous three games this year saw two draws and a Suwon win. Suwon will need to rely on their neighbour Suwon FC to put in a good performance against FC Seoul to climb to 9th place, but Suwon Bluewings fans will remain hopeful.
A Slight Issue If Suwon Survive...FC Seoul will be destroyed if they slump to 10th place on Saturday. However, that will be the least of their problems if this is to happen.
That is because FC Seoul have also made the 2022 FA Cup final against Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors. The team that fell short this year of the K League title and will do anything to get their hands on some silverware. It is not just the team that they are playing which is the problem, it is also the dates. Below are the following dates of the promotion/ relegation games, as well as the FA Cup final dates.
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As you can see at this moment in time, if FC Seoul do end up in 10th place, they are looking at playing four games in five days. Now it will be the case that something will be moved to give Seoul more time if they are to end in 10th place, however, it could still look like a lot of games in a short space of time.
Final Thoughts Suwon's fight to do just about enough to stay in with a chance of survival and FC Seoul's freefall has allowed for a very exciting afternoon of football to be played on the weekend. To be completely honest, even though Suwon have to rely on their cross-town neighbours Suwon FC to give them a hand, you could say it is advantage Bluewings.
FC Seoul are having so many problems on and off the pitch at the moment and surely physiologically that could be affecting the players. The capital club were once so far away from the drop that no one could have thought that the season would end like this.
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Seoul will need to get a result against Suwon FC on the weekend if they are to avoid playing in the promotion/ relegation games. And with the way things are going for the side so far, maybe a Seoul derby in the league is still on the cards, just not in the K League 1.“The table doesn’t lie” is a phrase often heard in football. Whilst that may be true, the table does lack context and can mask a teams under performance or pile pressure on an unlucky coach. K League United's in-house man with the training cones and drill tops takes a look at how the K League 1 table would look if it was based purely on Expected Goals.
To get a clearer picture of how teams are actually performing we can look at what their results would have been based upon Expected Goals (xG). This will give an idea of the degree to which teams are dominating games and creating chances and an alternate league table based upon xG results can be produced.
For example, the Seongnam vs Jeonbuk game in May resulted in a 0-0 draw, but according to xG the game should have finished 1-0 to Jeonbuk. The exact xG scores were Jeonbuk 1.68 vs Seongnam 0.3 and so for the xG table, Jeonbuk are awarded three points. Below is a table based on whether results/points were determined by the xG of each game.
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XG deals with small percentages and possible goals. If an xG score from a game was 1.63 to 1.04 this game would be defined as a 1-1 draw, each team having created good enough chances to expect to score one goal each and no more.
XG is an average rate of conversion and doesn't suggest when a goal would be scored, a key trait of successful teams is scoring goals in tense key moments to turn a loss into a draw, or even better a draw into a win. The xG table can not account for this, and xG alone is not a predictor of where teams will finish, but it can suggest how a teams form may unfold and how confident they can be about their future performances.
Daegu climb to the top of the table, picking up nine more points if they had converted the right chances at the right time. The Sky Blues did enough to win these points in terms of chance creation and denying opponents, but didn’t do so on the day. Several teams see a significant change in their league position, but it is the performances of FC Seoul and Jeju that stand out the most.
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Following a poor season in 2018 it would seem from the current league table that Seoul have rectified their issues and may be considered as title challengers once again. However,
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